Measles Travel Risk
๐ Measles Historical Trends and Future Risks
Understanding Global Measles Trend (2011โ2025)
As part of the contest, we analyzed historical measles case data to identify countries most vulnerable to outbreaks and forecast potential resurgence trends. The central question:
Which countries were most vulnerable to measles outbreaks between 2011 and 2024 โ and what trends could signal a global resurgence by 2025?
๐ Figure 1: Top 10 Countries by Total Measles Cases (2011โ2024)

This multi-panel line plot displays the annual total measles cases from 2011 to 2024 across the 10 countries with the highest cumulative case counts.
Highlights:
- Faceted time series for each country with free y-axis scales;
- Clear country-specific trends showing peaks and drop-offs;
- Smooth formatting using
ggplot2::facet_wrap()and color palettes;
Techniques used:
- Data transformation with
tidyverse,lubridate, andpivot_longer(); - Country ranking based on cumulative burden via
dplyr::summarise(); - Visualization built with
ggplot2andscale_color_brewer();
๐ฎ Figure 2: ARIMA Forecasts of Measles Cases (Top 10 Countries)

This grid of ARIMA forecasts shows projected measles cases through 2027 based on trends observed from 2011โ2024 for the top 10 most affected countries.
Highlights:
- Country-level time series forecasts using ARIMA(1,1,0).
- 80% and 95% prediction intervals visualized with shaded ribbons.
Techniques used:
- Time series modeling with
{tsibble}and{fable}. - Forecasting with
ARIMA()models andforecast()function. - Plot assembly via
autoplot()and layout using{patchwork}.
๐ Insights and Reflections
The historical trends illustrate repeated spikes (e.g., Madagascar in 2018, Yemen in 2023), underscoring the cyclical and volatile nature of measles outbreaks. Forecasts suggest continuing risk in several regions, particularly where recent upward trends have emerged or historical control was weak.
These patterns emphasize the urgency of maintaining high vaccination coverage, particularly in vulnerable countries, to prevent resurgence by 2025 and beyond.
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