Measles Travel Risk

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🌍 Measles Historical Trends and Future Risks

Understanding Global Measles Trend (2011–2025)

As part of the contest, we analyzed historical measles case data to identify countries most vulnerable to outbreaks and forecast potential resurgence trends. The central question:

Which countries were most vulnerable to measles outbreaks between 2011 and 2024 — and what trends could signal a global resurgence by 2025?

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📊 Figure 1: Top 10 Countries by Total Measles Cases (2011–2024)

This multi-panel line plot displays the annual total measles cases from 2011 to 2024 across the 10 countries with the highest cumulative case counts.

Highlights:

• Faceted time series for each country with free y-axis scales;
• Clear country-specific trends showing peaks and drop-offs;
• Smooth formatting using ggplot2::facet_wrap() and color palettes;

Techniques used:

• Data transformation with tidyverse, lubridate, and pivot_longer();
• Country ranking based on cumulative burden via dplyr::summarise();
• Visualization built with ggplot2 and scale_color_brewer();

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🔮 Figure 2: ARIMA Forecasts of Measles Cases (Top 10 Countries)

This grid of ARIMA forecasts shows projected measles cases through 2027 based on trends observed from 2011–2024 for the top 10 most affected countries.

Highlights:

• Country-level time series forecasts using ARIMA(1,1,0).
• 80% and 95% prediction intervals visualized with shaded ribbons.

Techniques used:

• Time series modeling with {tsibble} and {fable}.
• Forecasting with ARIMA() models and forecast() function.
• Plot assembly via autoplot() and layout using {patchwork}.

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🔎 Insights and Reflections

The historical trends illustrate repeated spikes (e.g., Madagascar in 2018, Yemen in 2023), underscoring the cyclical and volatile nature of measles outbreaks. Forecasts suggest continuing risk in several regions, particularly where recent upward trends have emerged or historical control was weak.

These patterns emphasize the urgency of maintaining high vaccination coverage, particularly in vulnerable countries, to prevent resurgence by 2025 and beyond.

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